Downstream end-users only maintain essential stockpiling, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes].

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, December 1, 2025

On the macro front, US Fed policy became the focus. Several Fed officials supported an interest rate cut in December to address vulnerabilities in the labour market. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December was 84.9%. Additionally, the US Department of Commerce was considering approving exports of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China, though the specific outcome remained uncertain. Domestically, the tin ore market overall showed weak supply and demand. Supply side, tin ore supply tightened in major producing areas like Yunnan, with most smelters expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. Demand side, demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets remained sluggish, orders decreased significantly, downstream procurement was cautious, and high prices noticeably suppressed actual consumption. Although AI computing power upgrades and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their contribution scale remained small, insufficient to offset the gap from declining consumption in traditional sectors. Spot market trading was sluggish, with downstream end-users only maintaining essential stockpiling amid a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Overall, tin prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, but due to the lack of clear improvement signs on both supply and demand sides, upward momentum for tin prices is insufficient. Investors are advised to remain cautious, monitor changes in domestic and overseas macroeconomic policies and supply-demand conditions, and adjust open interest strategies appropriately.